In today’s rapidly changing world, businesses and economies face unprecedented challenges that demand adaptability and resilience. VUCA, an acronym for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous aptly describes the characteristics of our modern era. The VUCA concept originated from the military but has since been adopted in various sectors, including economics.
The biggest VUCA challenges, threaten the long-term stability of the global economy. Volatility, for example, signifies the frequency and intensity of sudden and dramatic changes in market conditions, which have the potential to disrupt economies. Financial markets, commodity prices, and exchange rates are highly susceptible to volatility. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the global economy contracted by 3.5% in 2020; the global pandemic serves as a reminder of the volatility of our global economy.
Similarly, uncertainty refers to a lack of predictability, often caused by unforeseen events, technological advancements, geopolitical tensions, or regulatory changes. The global economy constantly grapples with uncertainties like political unrest – most recently the Ukrainian war – new regulations and policy shifts. Russia and Ukraine are major commodity producers, comprising 30% of global exports, and as a result of the war, food, oil and natural gas prices have soared. In 2020, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which measures uncertainty based on media coverage, hit record highs, surpassing even the levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
Uncertainty contributes to the complexity of the web of interconnected challenges that our current global economy faces. Complexity refers to the intricate and interdependent nature of economic systems, characterised by multifaceted relationships among various actors and factors. Globalisation and technological advancements have further amplified the complexity faced by economies worldwide. The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report identified “economic confrontations” and “digital inequality” as two of the top global risks, highlighting the complexity and interconnectedness of economic challenges.
In turn, these challenges contribute to the sense of ambiguity, the lack of clarity and the existence of multiple interpretations. Economic decisions, policy formulations, and market forecasts often grapple with ambiguous circumstances, making it difficult to anticipate outcomes and predict future markets. A Deloitte study suggested that the unknowable and unpredictable nature of our current environment runs counter to a dominant disposition in business: to decide to act.
Yet, ambiguity also offers the opportunity for businesses to re-write and commit to the ‘best’ opportunity. As we push for a greener future, scaling decarbonisation, to shift to a more sustainable economy—it becomes even more necessary for leaders to find ways to flourish in ambiguity.
Many of the problems we face today are not known yet; we are not even aware of the scope of problems that we’ll confront. Leaders may need to make decisions today in anticipation of what will likely be available in the future. This is a new and challenging position that could require a different model for decision-making, which is why embracing VUCA principles offers the opportunity to view issues from alternative perspectives to mitigate risks and create a more sustainable global economy.
Matthew Millard-Beer is the Managing Partner in Itriom’s London Office and CEO.
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