The butterfly effect in geopolitics - human influence dynamics

Firstly, there is clear coercion by someone using the law to invoke fear and intimidate potential protestors. However, this is only possible if people in that government pass such a law. They may fear imprisonment themselves, want to retain favour or genuinely believe that protests are criminal. So, a consensus is reached and the law is passed. However, the existence of the arrest footage demonstrates that some people are not intimidated. The law may have made them feel that they must protest or they believe that protest is the only way to bring change, regardless of the law. There is a consensus to protest.

Secondly, the footage is taken and transmitted by people. They publish it because they want other people to see what is happening. At least one of those people, who works for an international human rights organisation, feels compelled by the footage to share it, motivating more people to want to create a publicity campaign. That campaign inspires yet more people to lobby decision makers in their government to instruct their representative at the United Nations to table a motion, which triggers a debate. There is also a consensus amongst members of their legislature which leads them to pass a law, knowingly altering the fundamental nature of their strategic alliance.

So, for every geopolitical story there are actually two integrated images. A swirling world of human coercion, compulsion and consensus that enables corrupt regimes, inspires protests, mobilises campaigns and changes strategies.  We are all actors in these geopolitical stories and the closer we are to levers of power the more pivotal we may be to these influence dynamics, whether knowingly or as unwitting agents of others’ designs. Consequently, it is not enough to know about both images, but we must understand how they integrate and be astute enough to recognise when we are being acted upon.

It has been said that influence is easy to explain, difficult to understand and impossible to practise. We must recognise that we are all butterflies of influence, whether desired or not. Unlike children playing with paint, in geopolitics there is no room to practise because people are not a canvas. To be seen as an informed, empowered and independent global actor of the future means being aware of these dynamics, alert to invisible influences and alive to the effects of flapping wings.